We Cannot Learn From a Defeat We Refuse to Acknowledge

by James Scott Trimm 

I am seeing far too many of my fellow Republicans responding to the Blue Tsunami in Texas by constructing conspiracy theories about election fraud rather than confronting what actually happened.

One popular claim is that Democrats somehow manufactured 5.2 million votes because Democratic gubernatorial candidates received only about 3.5 million votes in both 2018 and 2022.

But that argument conveniently ignores the fact that Joe Biden received 5,259,126 votes in Texas in 2020. There was never a 3.5-million-vote ceiling for Democrats in Texas.

Texas also entered the 2026 election with a record 19 million registered voters, approximately 1.36 million more than in 2022.

But there is another important factor that deserves attention: What happened to the Republican voters who turned out for Donald Trump in 2024?

Consider these numbers:

2024 Presidential Election

• Donald Trump: 6,393,597 votes

• Kamala Harris: 4,835,250 votes

2026 Gubernatorial Election (reported totals)

• Greg Abbott: 4,456,531 votes

• Gina Hinojosa: 5,177,452 votes

The difference is revealing:

• Republican candidate: 1,937,066 fewer votes

• Democratic candidate: 342,202 more votes

• Combined two-candidate turnout: 1,594,864 fewer votes

Think about that.

Abbott received nearly TWO MILLION fewer votes than Trump received just two years earlier!

Now, presidential elections typically attract more voters than gubernatorial elections, and we cannot assume that every Trump voter would necessarily vote for Abbott. Nor can we determine from these totals alone exactly how many Trump voters stayed home.

Nevertheless, the enormous difference between Trump's 2024 vote total and Abbott's 2026 vote total raises serious questions about Republican turnout.

Meanwhile, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate received only about 342,000 more votes than Harris received in 2024.

The Republican decline was more than five times the size of the Democratic increase.

These are the kinds of numbers we should be examining rather than immediately assuming election fraud.

I have spent decades working in Republican politics, including serving on a legislative staff. I understand that winning elections requires hard work, effective strategy, and an honest assessment of the political landscape.

We need to ask difficult questions.

Why did the Republican gubernatorial candidate receive so many fewer votes than Trump? How much of that difference was ordinary midterm turnout decline? How many voters stayed home? How many changed their votes? What issues motivated the electorate?

These are questions that require serious analysis, not conspiracy theories.

We cannot analyze what went wrong, reflect upon our mistakes, and develop a strategy for future success if we refuse to acknowledge that we lost.

Blaming election fraud without evidence may make some people feel better about the outcome, but it does nothing to help us understand it.

You cannot correct a problem you refuse to recognize.

-James Scott Trimm